RT – January 3, 2017: With his first year in office drawing to a close, the US president has been talking up his economic record in typical Trump style. But one man who does not share Trump’s optimism is former congressman Ron Paul. He told RT the growth is not even for all people.
(BATTLEFORWORLD: And since we are in the Age of News Fakery, watch as President Trump turns the United States economy into success. Many will believe it. And Mr. Ron Paul, with your words of foresight, still many will not believe you sir. And President Trump, the all-time great magician will become such a wonder worker, making America great again that he might even win a second term in office before doom arrives. Austerity is coming to the United States.)
China May Halt Purchases of U.S. Treasuries
BLOOMBERG – January 10, 2018: China added to bond investors’ jitters on Wednesday as traders braced for what they feared could be the end of a three-decade bull market.
Officials in Beijing reviewing the nation’s foreign-exchange holdings have recommended slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasuries, according to people familiar with the matter. Benchmark bonds reversed earlier gains on the news, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries climbing for a fifth day.
China holds the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves, at $3.1 trillion, and regularly assesses its strategy for investing them. It isn’t clear whether the recommendations of the officials have been adopted. The market for U.S. government bonds is becoming less attractive relative to other assets, and trade tensions with the U.S. may provide a reason to slow or stop buying American debt, the thinking of these officials goes, according to the people, who asked not to be named as they aren’t allowed to discuss the matter publicly. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange didn’t immediately reply to a fax seeking comment on the matter. Link: Read Complete Article
Dimon thinks even his own economist at J.P. Morgan is dead wrong about GDP, predicts 4% U.S. growth.
MARKETWATCH – January 8, 2018: ‘If we have a couple of years of good growth, that could justify the markets where they are. Four percent economic growth this year is possible’. Those were the thoughts of JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon, who offered a forecast for U.S. economic growth that outstrips even some of the more bullish economists. Link: Read Complete Article
Retail Apocalypse Delayed
WSJ – January 9, 2018: “When companies are priced for death, slight increases seem heroic,” observes Simeon Siegel of Nomura Securities. Indeed, holiday sales, reported over the last week by a cluster of such doomed retailers, suggest an extraordinary revival.
Much of the upturn is thanks to retailers’ digital investments and better inventory management. Analysts also cite a strong economy and consumer optimism—a kind of rising-tide-lifts-all-boats scenario, in which even the sinking boats get a lift. Link: Read Complete Article
Rising Euphoria May Spell Trouble
BLOOMBERG – January 9, 2018: Euphoria on Wall Street that stocks can just keep on building on record highs is getting so stratospheric that it’s reaching levels that previously signaled a slump.
Analysts are ratcheting up their forecasts for U.S. corporate profits at the fastest pace in more than 10 years, according to the research firm Bespoke Investment Group. And that’s happening, unusually, right in the run-up to an earnings-season kick-off. While the upgrades could be taken as a positive reflection on the economy’s outlook, in the past such bullish analyst sentiment has served as a precursor to a market decline. Link: Read Complete Article
World Bank says broad-based global recovery underway
TASS – January 9, 2018: World Bank analysts expect this year to mark a turning point for the global economy, the organization said in its January report named ‘Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long?’ released on Tuesday.
“The year 2018 will likely mark a turning point for the global economy because, for the first time since 2008, the negative global output gap is expected to be closed,” the report said. “Among EMDEs, helped by the recent recovery in commodity markets, and advanced economies, output gaps should approach zero. The closing gaps in major advanced economies would allow a normalization of monetary policy after a decade of exceptional easing. With the anticipated further withdrawal of stimulus by advanced economies, EMDE policymakers need to remain alert to the potential for adverse spillovers even while pursing policies to support strong, sustained growth,” the paper said. Link: Read Complete Article