BATTLE FOR WORLD / MARKETWATCH – December 10, 2018: The article highlights that Maurice Obstfeld, the retiring chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is on his way out and has warned that global growth is slowing and that the U.S. will likely feel the drag as well.
“For the rest of the world there seems to be some air coming out of the balloon and that, I think, will come back and also affect the U.S.,” he said.
He said he foresees the U.S. economy enjoying relatively strong growth next year (2019), “but on a slowing path into 2020.”
AP / BATTLE FOR WORLD – November 19, 2018: The article highlights that the recent turbulence in the U.S. stock markets is spooking some older workers and retirees, a reminder that this group was hit particularly hard during the most recent financial crisis.
And there’s no indication that the recent volatility has brought about large-scale overhauls in retirement planning. To make matter worse “There’s a lot of fear that if you have another event like 2008 and you retire the year before or the year after, you’re screwed. I’m not taking that risk,” says Mark Patterson, a recently retired patent attorney from Nashville, Tennessee. And “There’s a huge fear of folks my age that they’re going to run out of money and they’re going to need to rely on the government for help.”
Indeed, haunting memories of another recession continues to take a financial and psychological toll on many of those who were affected.
CNBC / BATTLE FOR WORLD – November 19, 2018: The article highlights that Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters. And that “We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration,” wrote the bank’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius. But Goldman believes the U.S. will skirt a recession next year.
>But Goldman believes the U.S. will skirt
(BattleForWorld: Goldman is not being totally honest and I think it is to avoid panic. When 2020 arrives and ending, many financial analysts are going to dodge the press.)
Goldman Sachs continues, it believes that the U.S. economy will slow significantly in the second half of next year as the Federal Reserve pushes ahead to raise interest rates and the effects of the tax cut fade. It sees the Fed raising rates this December and then four more times in 2019. And that it will do so because inflation will reach 2.25 percent by the end of next year because of tariffs and increasing wages, the bank predicted, noting there was also a chance of an “inflation overshoot.”
And according to The Financial Times, it’s about to send a massive flood of cash into the pockets of the most prepared Americans.
According to former hedge fund manager, Dr. Steve Sjuggerud — one of the most widely-followed financial analysts in the world. Today, he shuns the spotlight and lives on a remote island off the Florida coast where he has built a new life… and a substantial fortune… by sharing a series of eerie predictions. Many of which have proven correct.
But his latest prediction has caught many Americans completely off-guard. Where he said, over the next year (2019) or two (2020), there’s going to be a panic — but not the kind of panic most people expect. In fact, it’s already begun.
MARKET WATCH / BATTLE FOR WORLD – November 20, 2018: The article highlights that ‘From a markets perspective, it’s going to be interesting. There probably will be some really scary moments in corporate credit,’ said Paul Tudor Jones, a hedge-fund luminary.
He’s stress-testing his portfolio of corporate debt because he expects a tumultuous road ahead on the back of the Federal Reserve’s apparent commitment to normalizing interest rates and buttressed by corporate tax cuts from the Trump administration.
Speaking at an economic forum in Greenwich, Conn., a stronghold for hedge funds, Jones commented that the Fed faces real challenges amid “the end of a 10-year run” of economic growth that many anticipate will soon come to a screeching, cyclical end.
And he’s not alone, as the biggest threat to financial stability comes from the elevated level of the stock market and the sensitivity of bond prices to interest rates, says the conclusion of the Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research, which on Thursday (November 15) published its annual report to Congress. It called the overall threat to financial stability as “medium.”
SPUTNIK NEWS / BATTLE FOR WORLD – November 20, 2018: The article highlights that economic experts from major international financials, academic circles, and government agencies say the US is facing mounting risks of a recession due to elevated uncertainty in international trade, a possible slowdown in domestic investment, and rising costs of doing business.
Kristian Rouz — Several new reports from economists and investment bankers suggest the US economy might be headed for a slowdown next year (2019), while the chances of a full-blown recession will rise to 50 per cent in the year 2020. Experts believe international trade woes, and gains in domestic inflation could weigh on the pace of US economic expansion.
And James Knightley of the Dutch bank ING said: “The economy is facing a growing number of headwinds, including the lagged effects of previous interest rate rises and dollar strength, the uncertainty of trade protectionism at a time when external demand is slowing, and a sense that the support from the fiscal stimulus will gradually fade.”
Meanwhile, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who served under President Bill Clinton, believes there is a 50-per cent chance of a recession by the year 2020. And said: “I think the risks if we have a recession are very, very serious so they need to bend over backwards to avoid that.”
“We don’t expect another recession until 2021, at the earliest,” said Byron Wien of Blackstone Group’s Private Wealth Solutions Group, and added that “The Fed is doing the right thing.”
YAHOO / BATTLE FOR WORLD – November 14, 2018: The article highlights that the U.S.’ debt is skyrocketing and soon the country will spend more on servicing its debt than it will on national defense – and shortly after will spend more on its debt than on all nondefense discretionary programs combined.
And that while America’s debt has skyrocketed, low inflation and international demand for Treasury bonds has held down interest costs, but with the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking interest rates that is expected to change. As the Fed is hiking interest rates as inflation has percolated higher – higher interest rates will translate into higher debt payments.
The Wall Street Journal reported citing data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), that the U.S. will spend more on interest than it spends on Medicaid in 2020, and in 2023 interest spending will exceed national defense spending, and by 2025 it will spend more on interest than on all nondefense discretionary programs combined. Wow!